Pedictions

As I did last year (via Twitter), the time has come to predict the MLB playoffs.  Last year, I did VERY well, correctly predicting all 8 teams.  Without further ado, here is where things stand now:

AL East                    AL Central               AL West
Boston                       Detroit                        Texas
New York                 Cleveland                    Los Angeles
Tampa Bay                Chicago                      Oakland
Toronto                      Minnesota                  Seattle
Baltimore                   Kansas City

NL East                    NL Central                NL West
Philadelphia               Milwaukee                  Arizona
Atlanta                       St. Louis                     San Francisco
New York                 Cincinnati                   Colorado
Washington               Pittsburgh                   Los Angeles
Florida                       Chicago                      San Diego
                                  Houston

I think we can all agree that Baltimore, Seattle, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, and Toronto are out in the American League (yes, Blue Jays fans, I realize I left the White Sox in with their losing record...ya'll are in the AL East...'nuff said).  Likewise, it is safe to say that Houston, Chicago, San Diego, Los Angeles, Colorado, Florida, Pittsburgh, Washington,  and New York are also looking to 2012 by now.

That leaves 8 teams in the AL and 7 in the NL still battling for 4 spots in each league.  Let's start with the Junior Circuit.

The Boston Red Sox started slow, but will finish strong and win the East and secure home field advantage.  As the Yankees will be the Wild Card, and they are in the same division as the BoSox, Boston will open up at home against...wait for it...the Detroit Tigers.  Detroit will ride Justin Verlander to the Central title, nipping a game but overmatched Cleveland Indians club.  The Yankees will open at West repeat champion Texas Rangers, who will put away the Los Angeles Angels this month (7 games in the next two weeks).  Tampa Bay will make it close, but will be unable to make up their deficit to the Yankees for the Wild Card.  And the White Sox?  Well, you can't win the division with a losing record.  And the Sox can't win at Comiskey.  Next year, South Side!  On to the Senior Circuit.

Oh, to be a Philadelphia Phillies fan!  Start with arguably one of the best starting rotations in the league, then add Hunter Pence into the mix and, damn.  The Phillies will run away with the East, leaving the Wild Card Braves deep in their wake and secure home field.  Again, as in the AL, the Phillies will not open with the Wild Card Braves, but host the Milwaukee Brewers, champions of the Central, come playoff time.  St. Louis and a surging Cincinnati Reds team, feasting on weaker clubs in the last two months of the season, will fall just short, but keep the Brew Crew on their toes through the final week of the season.  This leaves Atlanta to once again hit the road for..."I left, my hearrrrrrrrrrt, in Saaaaaan Franciscooooo!" The Giants will awaken their offense, and their stellar pitching staff will carry the Giants through to the West championship.  Arizona, playing way over their heads, will falter on a vicious 10 game road trip through Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Washington beginning Tuesday, then wither under the pressure of playing the surging Giants 6 times in the final month.

So there we stand on this day, August 15th, 6 weeks left in the season.  Red Sox-Tigers and Rangers-Yankees in the AL.  Phillies-Brewers and Giants-Braves in the NL.

You read it here first.

P.S. It's too early to predict the political side of 2012, other than to say one thing:

Obama is toast, and will go down as the worst president ever.

Complacency

I am a life-long fan of the San Francisco Giants.  I waited 40 years for them to win the World Series, suffering through losing seasons and oh-so-close playoff and World Series games.  I have been a fan since 1970, when I was able to truly comprehend what it was to be Willie Mays (the greatest ballplayer of all time).  As a fan, and a student of the game, it pains me to say this.  But it must be said.

The Giants have gotten complacent.

Yes, the dreaded "c" word.  They believe that lightning will strike twice.  Can you otherwise explain why they stubbornly continue to run Aubrey Huff out there, day after day, only to have him ground out weakly to second?  Why did management sign players such as Miguel Tejada in the offseason and trade for players like Orlando Cabrera during the season?  I think I know why.

The team feels they have the pieces in place to repeat, despite the losses of key players like Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez to injury, and believes a few tweaks here and there will do the trick.

Let me tell you, that may have worked if those left over from 2010 were having seasons like they did in 2010.  Huff, Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Pat Burrell, among others are nowhere near 2010 numbers, much less career numbers.

Standing pat was never going to work.  Tejada at shortstop was never going to work.  The lack of a feared bat in the lineup, every day, was never going to work.  And expecting players to have career years...again...was complacency at its worst.  And the team, and its fans, will pay for it.  I remain hopeful, seeing that we are in much better shape than we were in August of 2010.  But can we pull off another 18-8 record in September to effectively seal the deal?  Not with this offense.

Complacency in baseball is painful to watch.  Complacency in government is deadly.  And we are seeing that right now, from both parties, but most painfully from the president.  He is supposed to be the leader.  He is supposed to knuckle down and solve these problems afflicting this country.  A weak and sinking economy.  Rising unemployment.  A country drowning in debt.  But what is he doing instead?

A campaigning and fund raising bus tour of the midwest, followed by 10 days in Martha's Vineyard.  Really feeling our pain, I see.

Show of hands, how many of you are going/have gone to the Vineyard this summer?  Hmmm...not many.

I do not begrudge the president a vacation.  We all deserve one.  I do, however, begrudge the man being so damn complacent that he is now tone-deaf to what the citizens of this nation are going through.  If its not unemployment, its the erosion of personal wealth as home values and the stock markets have collapsed.  I think the president truly believes his re-election is a cinch; that the media will shield him from his many missteps and mishandling of the job.  I think he truly believes he is right, no matter how wrong reality is showing his policies to be.  I think his arrogance and superior attitude will hoist him on his own petard.  And I don't think he understands how much damage, possibly permanent, he has done to this great nation.

Come November 2012, he will find out.

No place for machismo

If you have not yet discerned by the enormous logo background, I am a fan (lifelong) of the San Francisco Giants.  And while I will write about ALL of baseball (Jerry Meals would have been eviscerated here, had I been blogging two weeks ago...he was out, Jerry), I must confess I will focus on the Giants.

So let me make a case for something I will most assuredly be disagreed with about:

THERE IS NO PLACE FOR TESTOSTERONE-FUELD MACHISMO ON THE DIAMOND.

Last night's on-field brawl between the Phillies and the Giants (Dodgers?  Who?), a rivalry that is becoming more bitter by the hour, was initiated by an inside fastball from Giants reliever Ramon Ramirez that went a little too far inside to Phillies centerfielder Shane Victorino...about 18 inches too far inside.  The fastball struck Victorino square in the back, which prompted Victorino to walk menacingly towards the mound (all 5'9" of him...I doubt he would have moved if 6'6" Guillermo Mota was on the mound).  Giants catcher Eli Whiteside intervened, followed by home plate umpire Mike Muchlinski, and...well, you can probably guess the rest.  If you need help, here's the video link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=YWYra1UO8WM#at=12

Anyhoo, this is all part of a disturbing and ridiculous trend in baseball that needs to stop.  Let me repeat...THIS NEEDS TO STOP!  Hey, Shane, your Phillies have been hammering Ramirez since he came into the game, and Jimmy Rollins added insult to injury by stealing second base (after his two-run single gave the Phightin' Phils a 6 run lead in the sixth inning...not kosher, James), Placido Polanco reached on an infield hit...well, Shane, you have to expect a brushback here.  So, you take offense to it, and instead of taking your base (loading the bases, by the way) you want to pick a fight?  Seriously?

Listen, brushback pitches are a part of the game.  In the good old days, you shook it off and made the pitcher pay the next time you came to the plate.  You didn't charge the mound and initiate a brawl.  Grow up, all of you.  Yes, continue to pitch inside, move a guy off the plate, send a message, whatever.  But let your pitcher get revenge for you by doing the same to one of the other team's best players (don't worry, Aubrey Huff...you're safe).  Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey (when he returns) just have to accept it.  As long as its not at the head.  Never at the head.  You hear me where you are, Don Drysdale?!?  But drop this posturing, chest-pounding machismo, boys.  It doesn't belong on the field.

Which brings to another place where this posturing machismo has no place.  The halls of government.

Now that our credit rating has been downgraded (thanks bunches, Standard and Poors...did your report have to be so biased towards the left wing?), perhaps our representatives on the Hill will get serious about cutting spending and fixing our fiscal house.

"But what about revenues?!?" the liberals scream, foaming at the mouth, waving their arms frantically.

I'm fine with that.  Really, I am.

First, let's fundamentally overhaul the tax code, starting with a reduction in corporate taxes and a tax holiday to get all that overseas revenue repatriated back here.  Eliminate the loopholes so GE can't sit on Obama's useless "Council on Jobs" while paying zero taxes in 2010 and shipping jobs overseas.

Next, lets eliminate all those tax breaks and subsidies the liberals want gone:  tax breaks for corporate jet owners (hey...YOU guys put that in the tax code, not us conservatives!), tax breaks for oil and gas companies, etc.  But we also eliminate all the subsidies and tax breaks for "green energy," buh-bye ethanol subsidies, adios tax breaks for hybrid or electric vehicles.  You want the welfare for industries that conservatives support gone, then your pet projects that all seem to be around environmental subsidies are gone, too.  If ethanol can't stand on its own in a competitive market, tough.  If consumers don't want to pay $33,000 for an ugly, subcompact Chevy Volt without a big tax break from Uncle Sam, so be it.  If homeowners aren't willing to shell out tens of thousands of dollars to put solar panels on their roof as a long-term investment, then the government has no business paying them to do it.

Finally, initiate a low flat tax coupled with a consumption tax.  Nothing could be more fair, as the "rich" will pay more on both their income and the luxury items they buy.  The last time I looked, "fair" still means everyone has to do roughly the same.  And 10% of $1,000,000 is still ten times more than 10% of $100,000, and twenty times more than 10% of $50,000.  For some reason, "fairness" in the tax code according to liberals means the government takes all the money they can from successful people and dole it out to those unwilling to work hard, whether that was in school when they were young or at a job when they were older.

The government does not provide jobs.  The government has a responsibility to act like an adult and collect the taxes necessary to function while doing the least amount of harm economically.  The current tax code has gotten away from that...WAY away from that.  It is high time for the posturing and chest-thumping to end in DC, and let's get back to making this economy work for all of us.

Machismo has no place on the diamond, nor in the halls of government.  Got that, Mr. President?